- Home
- About
- Local groups
- Community
- News
- Resources
- Offer Support
- Contact us
IEA changes its mind on peak oil
Last week Kathryn Ryan interviewed Dr Fatih Birol on National radio.
This article has come across from my blog site www.robinwestenra.blogspot.com
http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2011/05/iea-changes-its-mind-on-peak-o...
" Scientists challenge major review of global reserves....
... and warn that supplies will start to run out in four years' time"
I can't summarise this article any better than its' own words, but in general, this picture is reaching a level of awareness, and un-deniability that is outweighing even the efforts of the large suppliers to keep pushing realistic limits towards the horizon....
" Scientists have criticised a major review of the world's remaining oil reserves, warning that the end of oil is coming sooner than governments and oil companies are prepared to admit.
BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, published yesterday, appears to show that the world still has enough "proven" reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates. The assessment, based on officially reported figures, has once again pushed back the estimate of when the world will run dry.
However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/world-oil-supplies-are-set-to-...
If peak oil doesn't get get us, peak meteroites will.... !
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/milewide-asteroid-heading-towa...
oh well, lets sqaunder what we have anyway. either way, it's all going to be over one day!!! (I don't mean that by the way, but the actions of some make one wonder....)
old news?
Hi azeo,
I thought is was worth noting that both of these links are quite old, 2007 and 2002.
old news!
yes certainly worth it- my apologies, slightly embarassed, the headlines caught my attention rather than the date! Just as topical today, as they were then, wish I could say I dug up old news to demonstrate historic concerns relevant to today, but, ahem, it was a case of finding "headlines", and thinking they were up-to-date! Certainly will be looking closer in the future, so thanks!
The position laid out by
The position laid out by Fatih Birol of the IEA seems to accord with what most in the Peak Oil movement have been saying for a few years - that we have peaked and decline rates of 6-9 per cent.
Our low-energy future. No surprises.
To give IEA and Fatih Birol their due their 'coding' has not prevented their increasingly strident message from being read by anybody with half a wit.
Its been blindingly obvious over recent years that the sustained growth in production on IEA's charts is propped up by increasingly unlikely sources. Oil Yet to be Found, Unconventional Oil, Enhanced Recovery etc.
These have always been mere smoke and mirrors, and any but a fool could see what was going on.
I compliment Messieurs Birol and Tanaka for their delicate approach. It HAS been important that some confidence is preserved in the global economic system so that we could have time to prepare for the period of 'increased scarcity of supply' (to quote the recent IMF report).
What is unfortunate is that - in spite of IEA's best efforts at sustaining the delicate economic balance while shouting their warnings - we-the-world have not taken the opportunity presented by the 2000 to 2011 end-of-the-golden-weather time to make any effective preparation for the coming winter at all. We have blown our chance at contriving a sane and measured transition to a low energy future. Time has run out.
We are going to have a low-energy future anyway. How it pans out for each nation and each individual will now be a matter of luck rather than a planned deliberate process we could have been proud of.
There are things we can do with the knowledge we have. They will take immense courage; the urge to swim against the tide is not inbuilt. The flood of humanity is still towards Business as Usual, yet that way there be dragons.
It would be nice if we could do this transition as a Nation committed to a better ending, but I fear the nay-sayers have done too good a job of obscuring the truth about Peak-everything and Climate Change for there to be any chance of a national consensus. That consensus will be reached only by those who get to the back wall of the looted supermarket to find it empty - "Duh - maybe we shoulda thort ahead!".
So it will be as individual families and loose groups of Transitioners that we strive for our place in the sun once the mess dies down. We have to keep on believing in our alternative future, and doing what we can.
Most of the preparation is mental, as it is unlikely that any material assets will be left undisturbed by the unhappy masses. The ability to starve it out with a quiet gleam in the eye, a smile and a nod of encouragement to loved ones, "Hang in there... we know where this ends, and we know what to do next!"
Quite exciting, really!
Nigwil (cross posted from Seemorerocks)