ALERT: a dangerous state of affairs in the Middle East

THIS IS THE COPY OF AN EMAIL I HAVE SENT OUT TO ANOTHER GROUP AROUND EVENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST - TO TAKE HEED OR IGNORE AT YOUR PERIL

 

Hi folks, I have a considerable degree of worry about what is transpiring in the Middle East at the moment and its implications for world peace and for the continued flow of oil. Of course NONE of this is coming to light in the NZ media, so you have to look elsewhere. The economic decline continues despite a lot of pretense from the mainstream: Greece has essentially defaulted; Spain and Portugal are in the greatest danger of being the next to go in terms of sovereign default; the debt situation of Japan is worse than Europe and its economy is in terminal decline. All the indicators are that the situation in the United States is still getting worse despite all the statements about the economy ‘recovering. The United States is becoming more repressive by the day with several laws passed that allow for indefinite detension of US citizens, extr-judicial killing and certain types of protest are now on thieir way to being defined as felonies. It is in the Middle East and in North Asia that things are the most dangerous. The US and NATO are on the retreat with NATO troops  (ISAF) in Afghanistan essentially trapped by supply routes being cut off by the Pakistanis late last year and this latest massacre (by a group of soldiers, not a sole pertpetrator)  in Afghansitan is going to further undermine the West’s position in an unwinnable war - “Afghanistanis the place that empires go to die” But it is Iran and Syria where things are the most dangerous and there are several signs that war in the region is imminent - just a week ago it seemed that everything was just rhetoric and there would be no war.  It seemed that sanity might reign after all. Sometimes there are events that can change things very quickly. There is no doubt in my mind that Iranian nuclear weapons are a red herring and the reasons for war against Iran (at least from the point-of-view of the US) is the move by Iran from the US dollar to other national currencies (like the rouble and the yuan), and even gold in its  trade in oil - something that coutnries like China, India need - they were never going to go along with sanctions that would hurt their economic interests. The biggest factors indicating a move to war in the last fewe days are: 1) Payments system SWIFT to expel Iranian banks Saturday The world's biggest electronic payment system on Saturday will cut off Iranian banks blacklisted by the European Union in an attempt to further strangle Tehran's ability to finance a nuclear program. http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2012/03/more-from-iran.html 2) The approval of the Israeli cabinet of an attack on Iran http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2012/03/israeli-cabinet-approves-attack-on-iran.html 3) There have been reports that the US and the UK are releasing emergency oil reserves 4) the US navy is sending its oldest aircrafr carrier Enterprise (ready to be mothballed) to the Gulf - this could indicate a false flag operation or a provocation against Iran http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2012/03/iran-clock-is-ticking.html 5) Moves by Iran to trade oil in currencies other than the US dollar http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2012/03/ron-paul-on-real-reasons-for-war-on.html 6) Russia has indicated its continued support for Syria http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/10141192 7) Saudi Arabia has closed its embassy in Syria http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=145297 8) Reports that Saudi Arabia is delivering weapons to rebels in Syria http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2012/03/saudi-arabia-delivers-weapons-to-armed.html 9) Bombings over the last 2 days in Damascus and Aleppo http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2012/03/breaking-news-explosions-in-damascus.html http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2012/03/another-terrorist-attack-in-syria.html 10) VERY ALARMING - Obama has signed an Executive Order allowing for confistcation of any resources deemed necessary for the conduct of war - essentially dictatorial powers http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2012/03/obama-signs-himself-special-powers.html Here is an article from Business Insider that I can recommend: 5 Signs That A War With Iran Is Close http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-03-16/news/31199226_1_israeli-cabinet-israeli-strike-military-action The clock is ticking closer to the midnight hour regarding a strike in Iran. Israel might do it alone, but will likely have the backing of the U.S. Business Insider, 16 March, 2012 Is a war imminent, or are these moves just meant to scare Iran? Here are 5 signs that have piled up very recently. 1. SWIFT Cuts Iran Off: The international institution responsible for around 80 percent of the world’s financial transactions announced that it will cut off Iranian financial institutions from its system from Saturday. This unprecedented move is a big blow to Iran, and follows up on EU sanctions. 2. Majority in Israeli cabinet for strike: Israeli newspaper Maariv (Hebrew link, quote in English) by Ben Caspit saying that 8 out of 14 Israeli cabinet members now support a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The cabinet can give Prime Minister Netanyahu the green light for a strike, at the time he sees fit. 3. Netanyahu preparing Israeli public: The Israeli Prime Minister continues the tough rhetoric against Iran also after coming back from his long visit in the US. Analysts see this as a preparation of the Israeli public for a war. 4. Using Oil Reserves: There was a report, later denied, that the US and the U.K. decided on releasing oil from the emergency reserves in order to lower prices. This could be another preparation. 5. “Last Chance” Warning: According to Russian sources, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asked the Russians to send a message to Iran that the upcoming 6-nation talks with Iran are the last chance before military action. Needless to say, oil prices certainly play a role in the considerations of all sides. Iran is the world’s 5th largest producer of oil, and sits on the Straights of Hormuz, where 40 percent of the world’s shipments pass through. All these moves could mount to a preparation for a U.S.-backed Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. It could also just add to pressure against Iran, trying to force it to comply without really engaging in military action. There are many other interests that push leaders to higher rhetoric, such as internal politics ..... Last but not least, Iran has made its response to threats along the lines that closing SWIFT to Iran is "like closing international waterways" and "if the United States or Europe considers it its right to ignore international laws to meet its own interests, Iran may also decide to respond in kind wherever possible,"

(11) Former Minister: Iran to Close Strait of Hormoz if Threatened http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9012152629

My gut feeling is much will hinge on whether the West goes ahead with cutting Iran off from SWIFT; if it does then wait for the response from Iran - along with that from China and Russia. There are indications that these countries might have held their tongues on things that irritated them - but do not necessarily feel constrained to continue doing so. Best wishes, Robin