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Next oil-induced recession - are we there yet?

Submitted by Denis Tegg on 1 April 2011 - 1:17pm | updated 01 Apr 2011 | Blog entry

Research in the US confirms that there is a strong correlation between high oil prices and recessions. Recessions emerge when oil prices reach around $US85 a barrel (currently $US115 a barrel) or when the aggregate cost of oil for the nation equals 5.5% of GDP.

Price Tipping Point » Read more

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Oil Price Response Plan For New Zealand Ignored

Submitted by Denis Tegg on 17 March 2011 - 1:27pm | updated 17 Mar 2011 | Blog entry

Prime Minister John Key's only response to rapidly rising oil prices has been to say "the government is powerless - there is nothing we can do". Not so. » Read more

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oil prices rising rapidly before the unrest in Middle east

Submitted by Denis Tegg on 2 March 2011 - 12:17pm | updated 02 Mar 2011 | Blog entry

Here is the best analysis I have found about what’s been happening on the global oil scene. It also confirms that peak oil pundits like Canadian economist Jeff Rubin, and Richard Heinberg and dozens of others, have been uncannily accurate. This is a précis of Jeff Rubin’s recent article. » Read more

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Joining the dots ... finally

Submitted by Denis Tegg on 25 February 2011 - 12:19pm | updated 25 Feb 2011 | Blog entry

Suddenly the world's media is awash with concern that the recent rise in oil prices will stall economic growth worldwide and cause another global recession. Guardian and here BBC Wall Street Journal

Finally, even in New Zealand, Brian Fallow economic commentator for the New Zealand Herald expresses concern about the implications for the New Zealand economy from rapidly rising oil prices.

It has taken the uprising in Libya to finally focus the mind of commentators on the dire effects on the world economy of oil prices. But most of this analysis fails to acknowledge that prices were already rising rapidly well before the uprising is in the Middle East due to accelerating demand in developing nations, as well as in oil producing countries. And that the Libyan crisis and the speculation that has followed is a “fear premium” on the price -- which was already rapidly rising due to fundamentals of supply and demand.

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